Extended Data Fig. 2: Past and future estimates of temperature and precipitation across Svalbard.
From: Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100
(a-c) The 1,888 glaciers in Svalbard span an elevation range38 of >1,200 m, a mean annual temperature range of >10 °C, and a >4-fold change in precipitation (<0.5 to 2.0 m.w.e. yr−1). The elevation map in (a) uses the Norwegian Polar Institute S0 terrain model33, and the mean annual air temperature (b) and mean annual precipitation (c) estimates use the downscaled NORA10 dataset5 (1 km resolution, 1957-2018). (d-i) Glacier-averaged summer temperature (d-f) and solid precipitation estimates (g-i) for 2010-2100 from Arctic CORDEX under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios6. The color bar for the mean summer temperature (Ts) maps in (d-f) is centered on the upper bound of the 1936-2010 Ts (95th percentile = 2.2 °C; Fig. 3). Thus, brown colors indicate that, in the space-for-time substitution in Fig. 4, we are predicting glacier behavior in response to temperatures that rise higher than those in the observational data that calibrate the model.
