Extended Data Table 2 Overview of shown pathways and their characteristics
From: Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C
- Pathways are characterized by (1) their ‘low’ or ‘high’ ambition (in the case of uncertain NDCs or provided target ranges, with ‘high ambition’ indicating the lower emission variant, and ‘low ambition’ indicating the higher emission variant), conditionality (C, full implementation, including conditional elements; U, unconditional); (2) the extension method from 2030 to 2050 (‘SSP1BL’ indicates using country-specific and gas-specific growth rates from ref. 38; ‘n/a’ indicates not applicable as country data only used up to 2030 and global extensions use 2025–2030 global growth rates; ‘Constant 2020-2030 rate’ indicates assuming the constant 2020–2030 country-level emission rate; and ‘constant’ indicates constant 2030 levels of emissions up to 2050); (3) the inclusion of ‘hot air’ (E, excluded; I, included); (4) alterations of the global methane emissions (‘full CH4’ indicates global CH4 reductions linearly ramped from 2020 levels to −30% by 2030 and constant thereafter or NDC scenario, whichever lower; ‘cond. CH4’ indicates scenario adjusted with sum of 30% country-level methane reductions that go beyond country-level conditional NDC scenario; ‘uncond. CH4’ indicates same as ‘cond. CH4’ but using sum of country-level methane reductions below country-level unconditional NDC scenario). Also shown are peak exceedance probabilities, peak warming, time of peak warming, and 2100 warming for the 5th and 95th percentiles as well as the median.
