Extended Data Fig. 9: Age at clone detection and onset.
From: The longitudinal dynamics and natural history of clonal haematopoiesis
a, Proportion of clones driven by different driver mutations that were incipient on-study, ie. undetectable at time-point 1 and detectable by the end-of-study. Absolute numbers are given above each bar. b, Relationship between age at onset and observed annual growth rate, with points representing the mean annual growth/median age at onset and intervals representing, respectively, the 90%/95% highest posterior density intervals (HPDI). The black line and grey shaded area represent the theoretical limit of detection at 80 years of age (n = 615 clones). c, Violin plot showing the distribution of projected ages at onset for all clones, assuming stable lifelong growth at the same fixed rate we observed during older age. d, Association between the age at which clones appeared in the simulations and the age at clone foundation inferred using our time-series data (R2 = 0.75). Boxplots show that, while these estimates may have high variance, the distribution of expected values is close to the true value (n = 250 simulated clones). The boxes represent the 25th, 50th (median) and 75th percentiles of the data; the whiskers represent the lowest (or highest) datum within 1 interquartile range from the 25th (or 75th) percentile. e, Sensitivity analysis depicting the median (dot) and the 95% confidence interval of the ages at onset for each gene when considering different population sizes ( 104, 5*104, 105, 2*105 and 6*105) and numbers of generations per year (1, 2, 5, 10, 13, 20; n = 615 clones).
