Fig. 4: Risk prediction in a population and trial setting.
From: Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries
a–d, The association of iPGS with ischaemic stroke (AIS) in European (Estonian Biobank) (a), East Asian (BioBank Japan) (b), African American (Million Veteran Program) (c) and European participants in clinical trials (d). Compared with the middle decile (45–55%) of the population as a reference group, the risk of high-iPGS groups with varying percentile thresholds was estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model for European and African American individuals and logistic regression models for East Asian individuals with adjustments for age, sex and the top five genetic principal components. e, Kaplan–Meier event rates for ischaemic stroke in European participants in five clinical trials (Methods) by tertile of GRS at 3 years (the GRS uses effect estimates of the cross-ancestry AS GWAS as weights) showing higher GRS increases risk of ischaemic stroke (Ptrend = 1.4 × 10−4). The two-sided Ptrendvalue was computed using Cox regression. Int., intermediate.
