Extended Data Fig. 6: Regionally contrasting tropical species vulnerability to mean and extreme temperatures by 2099.
Bivariate map showing assemblage level percentage of vertebrate species exposure to extreme thermal events and mean annual temperature (a). For extreme thermal events, combined exposure was quantified by spatially aggregating exposure to all three metrics across the species range (same as in Fig. 1b), percentage of species exposure was then aggregated within each ~24.1 km2 grid-cells. b latitudinal patterns for assemblage level exposure to extreme thermal events (yellow) and mean annual temperatures (blue) are shown. Smoothened line represents generalized additive model fits of the percentage of species exposure against the latitude value of each grid-cell (GAM; both two-sided unadjusted P < 0.001). Median estimates from five GCMs are shown. Results are presented for the SSP5–8.5 scenario – 4.4 °C of warming by 2099 compared to pre-industrial conditions (1850–1900).
