Extended Data Fig. 1: Overview of methods employed for estimating species range exposure to extreme thermal events.
Illustrated using the geographical range of the Colorado river toad Incilius alvarius. Stage 1: species-specific threshold is calculated as the spatial maximum of 99% daily maximum temperature between the years 1950 to 2005 (PTmax99 – indicated by a red arrow). Stage 2 and 3: extreme thermal event metrics – frequency (F), duration (D), and intensity (I) for future (indicated by letter F before each metric) and historical (indicated by letter H before each metric) period was calculated by comparing PTmax99 with daily maximum temperature time series per grid-cell for each year. Extreme event was designated if the daily maximum temperature is above the species-specific threshold for more than 5 or 10 consecutive days. Stage 4: to designate grid-cell exposure, future extreme event metric per year was compared against the maximum of historical metric (Hfmax, Hdmax, and HImax). Stage 2 to 4 are repeated for each year (indicated by the circular arrow).
