Fig. 2: Exposure to significant harm from climate change at different levels of warming.

We examine the exposure of the 2010 global population to mean annual temperatures above 29 °C (purple; linear fit, P < 0.01), wet bulb temperatures of 35 °C for an average of at least 1 day per year (orange; quadratic fit, P < 0.01) and future sea-level rise (blue; linear interpolation). Sea-level rise is calculated for 2100 (blue solid) and multi-centennial (blue dashed; linear interpolation) responses to a given temperature stabilization by 2100, representing near-term impacts and long-term equilibria, respectively. The inset shows the magnification of wet bulb temperature in the range 1–2 °C. Shading indicates one s.e.