Fig. 3: Changes in global mitigation benchmarks across assessed scenarios.
From: Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks
a–c, Scenario-wise distributions of the estimated change in the net-zero CO2 year (a), 2020–2030 CO2 emission reductions (b) and cumulative emissions until net-zero CO2 (c) between the re-analysed model-based and the NGHGI LULUCF accounting conventions are shown for 1.5 °C (blue, IPCC category C1), 1.5 °C-OS (green, IPCC category C2) and 2.0 °C (purple, IPCC category C3) scenarios. A positive value indicates that the benchmark comes later (for net-zero years) or is higher (for cumulative emissions) in the model-based framework compared with the NGHGI-based framework, whereas a negative value indicates that the benchmark is higher in the NGHGI-based framework (for emission reductions). Across all benchmarks, NGHGI-based accounting tends to result in more stringent outcomes (earlier net-zero years, higher emission reductions and lower cumulative emissions to net-zero CO2 emission). A comparison with the original AR6 benchmarks is shown in Extended Data Fig. 1. a.u., arbitrary units.
