Fig. 2: Impact of model differences, climate targets and other scenario assumptions on the projections of energy sources in the transport sector.

a, Scenario spread of energy sources in the transport sector is attributed to three drivers, shown in the three corners: model differences, climate targets and other scenario assumptions. Spread in late-century oil (red) use in transport is mostly driven by climate targets (top corner), whereas other sources of energy in the transport sector (electricity in yellow, hydrogen in blue and liquid biofuel in green) are driven by model differences (bottom left corner), indicating the weak impact of other scenario assumptions (bottom right corner). Dashed lines mark the 50% values in each of these three axes. b–e, Projected 2050 values of the use of oil (b), electricity (c), hydrogen (d) and liquid biofuels (e) in the transport sector, split by climate target or model (for abbreviations, see Extended Data Table 2). In box plots, centre line is the median, boxes the interquartile range, and whiskers the minimum and maximum values within ±1.5 times the interquartile range; a total of 1,152 individual scenario entries are shown in dots.