Extended Data Fig. 7: Uncertainty in the attribution of human-caused snowpack trends resides with climate model structure and modeled internal variability, not observations.
From: Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss
a, Dominant source of uncertainty in reconstruction-based estimates of forced March SWE trends from 1981 to 2020. b-e, Percentage of total uncertainty in forced SWE trends attributable to (b) observational uncertainty in gridded SWE products, (c) observational uncertainty in temperature and precipitation data products, (d) uncertainty in the forced response of temperature and precipitation across different climate models, and (e) uncertainty in the forced response of temperature and precipitation arising from internal variability (Methods). Hatching indicates basins where the uncertainty attributable to a given source is insufficient to change the sign of the ensemble mean estimate of the forced SWE trend. Maps were generated using cartopy v0.18.0. River basin boundaries come from the Global Runoff Data Centre’s Major River Basins of the World database44.
