Extended Data Fig. 8: Posterior parameter distributions from modelling relative creek width as a function of a base rate of widening and an adjustment given the abundance of sea otters.
From: Top-predator recovery abates geomorphic decline of a coastal ecosystem
This model is referred to as the ‘second-stage model’ in the Methods. In this figure, the model is fitted to mean values from the first-stage model (that is, not propagating uncertainty) as an illustration. The full model used for inference is fitted to 200 samples from the first-stage model. Histograms on the diagonal show the distribution for an individual parameter and the off-diagonals show the bivariate distribution for pairs of parameters. The parameter ‘r’ is the base rate of widening, ‘a’ is the relative channel width in the first year, ‘b’ is the maximum reduction in widening per otter and ‘sigma’ is the lognormal observation error standard deviation.
