Fig. 4: Abundance change varies over phylogenetic and spatial extents.
From: Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change
Evidence of abundance change at different significance thresholds (for example, at an 80% CI threshold, dark red indicates evidence of declines whereas dark blue indicates evidence of increases). a, For the phylogeny, the species-level trends were derived by summing across hierarchical taxonomic random effects and phylogenetic correlation terms. Asymptotic species-level confidence thresholds were derived using uncertainty in phylogenetic predictions at multiple z-scores. To improve visualization, phylogenetic branch lengths are log transformed. b, For space, we take taxonomic and phylogenetic information from a for one iconic and abundant North American species, the American robin Turdus migratorius, and combine this with hierarchical and correlative spatial terms to make population-level predictions across terrestrial space. Asymptotic confidence thresholds were derived at the population scale (for example, species in a given site) using multiple z-scores. These predictions are drawn from the correlated effect model and BioTIME data (Supplementary Table 1).
