Fig. 4: Phylogenetic signal in climatic and seasonal variation.

a–c, All results are based on a joint-species distribution model fitted to the 485 most common species. a, Quantification of variation in climatic sensitivity, optimal climate, seasonality sensitivity and optimal season among species. For climatic and seasonal sensitivity the colours show the proportion of variance explained by the second-order polynomial of the MAT of that site (for climatic sensitivity) and by the periodic functions of sin(2πd/365) and cos(2πd/365), where d represents the Julian day of the year (for seasonal sensitivity), coded as blue, cyan, pink and red for the four quartiles. For optimal climate we show the MAT at which the second-order polynomial of that MAT was maximized (that is, the point at which a further increase in MAT will change an estimated increase to an estimated decrease in species occurrence) in the colour scale of the world map shown in Fig. 1a. For optimal season we show the season at which the estimated occurrence of the species will peak, with colours coded as blue for winter (December–February in the Northern Hemisphere; for the Southern Hemisphere we assumed a 6 month difference in seasonality), green for spring (March–May), red for summer (June–August) and orange for autumn (September–November). Cases in which climatic or seasonal sensitivities were too low to determine the optimal climate or season are shown in white. b,c, Boxplots show the distributions of climatic (b) and seasonal sensitivities (c) for those orders represented in these analyses by at least ten species. Lines show the medians, boxes the lower and upper quartiles and whiskers the minimum and maximum values. The raw data are shown by dots that have been jittered to show overlapping points. For the list of taxa included in the analysis, see Supplementary Information.