Fig. 2: The return period of record-shattering jumps in annually averaged global SSTs based on past observed SSTs.
From: Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected
Observation-based estimate of the probability density of the return period of record-shattering jumps in synthetic time series of global SSTs that break the previous record by at least 0.25 °C. The mean return period (dashed black line), the median return period (dotted black line) and the limits of the 95% confidence interval (solid black lines) are also shown (see Methods for details).
