Extended Data Fig. 1: Record-shattering jumps in global sea surface temperature as observed in 2023/24 are simulated by climate models between 2000 and 2040.
From: Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected
Sea surface temperature (SST) climatologies for record-shattering (record-breaking events of largest magnitude before 2024) annual (April-March) global (60°S-60°N) SST events for a) observations from NOAA OISST V2.11, and climate model simulations from b)-h) CMIP6 (CanESM539,40 – r14i1p1f1, CanESM539,40 – r15i1p1f1, IPSL-CM6A-LR60 - r14i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r3i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r22i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r25i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r39i1p1f1), i)-j) the GFDL-ESM2M-LE41,42 (ensemble members 3 and 27), and k) – l) the CESM2-LE43,44 (ensemble members LE2-1301.002 and LE2-1251.017). The years of the onset of the respective events are shown as blue lines, the years of the decline as orange lines, and the 30 preceding years as grey lines with a black dotted line showing the average of these preceding 30 years.
