Extended Data Fig. 4: The gap in global sea surface temperatures created by the simulated record-shattering jumps is closed in most simulations in the years following the jump.
From: Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected
Sea surface temperature (SST) climatologies for record-shattering (record-breaking events of largest magnitude before 2024) annual (April-March) global (60°S-60°N) SST events for a) observations from NOAA OISST V2.11, and climate model simulations from b)-h) CMIP6 (CanESM539,40 – r14i1p1f1, CanESM539,40 – r15i1p1f1, IPSL-CM6A-LR60 - r14i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r3i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r22i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r25i1p1f1, MIROC661 – r39i1p1f1), i)-j) the GFDL-ESM2M-LE41,42 (ensemble members 3 and 27), and k) – l) the CESM2-LE43,44 (ensemble members LE2-1301.002 and LE2-1251.017) between 2000 and 2040. The years of the onset of the respective events are shown as blue lines, the years of the decline as orange lines, the 10 years following the event as green lines, and the 30 preceding years (pre-jump years) as grey lines with a black dotted line showing the average of these preceding 30 years.
