Fig. 2: The effect of the zoster vaccine on shingles diagnoses.

a–c, Effect estimates of being eligible for (a), and having received (across different follow-up periods (b) and across different grace periods (c)), the zoster vaccine on the probability of having at least one shingles diagnosis during the follow-up period. For a, the MSE-optimal bandwidth is 145.7 weeks (95,227 adults). The grey dots show the mean value for each 10-week increment in week of birth. The grey shading of the dots is proportionate to the weight that observations from this 10-week increment received in the analysis. For b and c, the MSE-optimal bandwidth for our primary specification is 116.9 weeks (76,316 adults). The triangles (rather than points) depict our primary specification. The red (as opposed to white) fillings denote statistical significance (P < 0.05). Grace periods refer to time periods since the index date after which the follow-up time is considered to begin. The grey vertical bars show the 95% CIs around the point estimate of the regression coefficient (two-sided t tests).