Fig. 4: The most deprived face significantly higher chance of ULE to heatwaves.

a, Geographic distribution of the 20% highest (brown markers) and 20% lowest (green markers) scoring 2020 birth cohort members (with roughly equal population) in the GRDI¹⁶. Grid cell marker sizes and colours are scaled by their population. b, Fraction of these two groups projected to experience ULE to heatwaves under the current policies pathway of 2.7 °C warming by 2100 for every fifth birth year. Light-coloured bars show total cohort sizes per birth year and vulnerability group, whereas dark colours indicate the affected fraction. Error bars show the standard deviation across projections. Asterisks indicate that a low- or high-vulnerability group from a given birth cohort has significantly more members with ULE to heatwaves than the alternative vulnerability group of the same birth cohort (at the 5% level). c,d, The high deprivation (c) and low deprivation (d) share of the birth cohort that is projected to experience ULE under the 1.5 °C (blue) and 3.5 °C (red) pathways.