Fig. 4: Assignment of the source of the North American introduction of P. destructans using Bayesian inference.
From: Two distinct host-specialized fungal species cause white-nose disease in bats
a, Bayesian inference (SPASIBA analysis; trained on 5,162 Pd-1 isolates) was performed independently for each of the 33 North American isolates across the continuous landscape (>5 million square kilometres). We then calculated the log-likelihood of the assignment across all 33 isolates (Supplementary Table 5), depicted on the map by a colour scale from blue (lowest log-likelihood) to red (highest log-likelihood). Green dots represent sites from which Pd-1 samples were collected, and the two yellow dots, in Podillia, Ukraine, indicate the inferred origin of the introduced ancestor of the 33 North American isolates (Supplementary Table 16). The zoomed-in area shown in b is represented here by the black rectangle. b, Details of the region with the most probable assignment. This area has a 6 × 109 greater likelihood of assignment than any pixel occurring outside this region (Supplementary Table 5). The central black-bordered pixel has the highest likelihood of assignment and contains the site to which the DAPC assigned all 33 North American isolates. The remaining black-bordered pixels have a likelihood within an order of magnitude of the central black-bordered pixel. Scale bar, 50 km.
