Fig. 4: Bayesian time series decomposition of main epidemic pathogens.
From: The spatiotemporal distribution of human pathogens in ancient Eurasia
Panels show estimated trendlines and 95% credible interval for detection rates (top), probability distributions and locations (dotted lines) for change points (middle) and probability of trend slope (bottom) being positive (red), negative (blue) or zero (white), inferred using Bayesian change-point detection and time series decomposition. Tops of panels show temporal distributions of newly reported pathogen hits (blue circles) as well as previously published ancient pathogens (grey circles) from the respective species.
