Extended Data Fig. 6: Assessment of simulated health trajectories.
From: Learning the natural history of human disease with generative transformers
All simulations are from the age of 60 onwards and use validation data. a, Simulated (x-axis) and observed (y-axis) annual disease rates during ages 70–75 for high and low smoking, alcohol consumption and BMI groups. b, Simulated and observed incidences for selected prior diseases. Same data as in a, but grouped for different prior diseases. c, Fold changes for the groups with and without prior diseases shown in b. d, Delphi accurately stratifies trajectories into low-, mid- and high-risk groups for selected diagnoses and death. Cumulative incidence (y-axis) as a function of age (x-axis). Risk groups are based on the top 1% and bottom 5% risk at the age of 60 years when simulations started. The low-risk group percentile was chosen to be larger to include sufficient cases for evaluation. Orange curves denote Delphi-2M simulations, blue observed data.
