Extended Data Fig. 4: Assessment of Delphi-2M in relation to other baseline models and stratifications.
From: Learning the natural history of human disease with generative transformers
a, Comparison of Delphi-2M against clinical biomarkers for selected diseases performed using the UKB validation dataset. Predictions are based on the information available at recruitment and evaluated over the subsequent 5 years. CLD: Chronic liver disease. Mod: Logistic regression model of several clinical markers. MCV: Mean corpuscular volume. b, AUC results comparing Delphi-2M to a simple disease predictor of Overall health rating UKB data field 2178. AUC values for field 2178 as a predictor for future health events (after the date of recruitment) (x-axis) against the AUC values from Delphi using the UKB validation data. c. Boxplot, showing the prediction AUCs for Delphi, split over sex, disease chapter and lifestyle factors, such as alcohol consumption, smoking and BMI. The boxplots feature the median as the center line, the box from the first to the third quartile and the whiskers for 1.5x IQR, clipped at min/max data points. Shown are data for n = 906 diagnoses for males and n = 957 diagnoses for females for which sufficiently many events were recorded in the validation data to evaluate AUCs.
