Fig. 3: Regional nonlinear term contribution to spatiotemporal sea-level changes.
From: Modern sea-level rise breaks 4,000-year stability in southeastern China
a, RSL change rate associated with the regional nonlinear term (r(x, t)) between 4500 and 4400 BP (2550–2450 BCE). Conditioning on the observations reduces the variance by at least 15% to the prior. b,c, Same as a but for the periods between 2350 and 2250 BP (400–300 BCE) and 1500 and 1400 BP (550–450 CE), respectively. d, Detrended mean RSL change rates with 68% CI near Ningbo in the YRD (green) and Zhaoqing in the PRD (purple). The triangles represent notable palaeoflood events inferred from sediment stratigraphy39,41,49 (error bar indicates 95% age CI), with their locations marked in a and b. e,f, RSL change rates owing to ocean dynamic sea-level change, detrended to exclude climate-change signals and highlight climate variability, for the periods 1920–1980 CE (e) and 1950–2010 CE (f), smoothed with a 20-year moving average filter (source data from ref. 9).
