Extended Data Fig. 3: Analytic process overview and map of modeling regions.

a, The process used to produce EBF prevalence estimates in Africa involved three main parts. In the data-processing steps (peach), data were identified, extracted and prepared for use in the model. In the modeling phase (orange), we used these data and covariates in a stacked generalization ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process model. In post-processing (red), we calibrated the prevalence estimates to match GBD 2017⁵ estimates and aggregated the estimates to the first- and second-level administrative subdivisions in each country. b, Modeling regions were defined as the five GBD regions for Africa: central (central SSA), east (eastern SSA), north (North Africa and the Middle East), south (southern SSA) and west (western SSA). As this study was limited to mainland Africa and African island nations (except Mauritius, Seychelles, Cape Verde Islands, Libya and Djibouti, where relevant data were not available or did not meet our inclusion and exclusion criteria), Middle East countries were excluded (Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen).