Extended Data Fig. 1: Estimated daily COVID-19 death rate (per 100,000 population) by state for all five scenarios.

The inset map displays the estimated daily deaths from COVID-19 death per 100,000 population by state on 28 February 2021. The light yellow background separates the observed and predicted part of the time series, before and after 21 September 2020. The dashed vertical line identifies 03 November 2020. Numbers are the means and uncertainty interval (UI) for the plausible reference scenario on dates highlighted.