Table 1 Cumulative deaths from 22 September 2020 through 28 February 2021, maximum estimated daily deaths per million, date of maximum daily deaths and estimated R_effective on 28 February 2021 for three boundary scenarios

United States

1,053,206 (759,693–1,452,397)

36.8 (22.2–58.2)

2/1/21

NA

511,373 (469,578–578,347)

9 (7.7–10.8)

1/3/21

NA

381,798 (336,479–421,953)

5.7 (4.1–7.2)

2/8/21

NA

California

161,608 (99,935–236,301)

57.4 (29.4–97.7)

1/30/21

0.72 (0.56–0.83)

79,721 (59,551–115,314)

17.1 (10–31)

2/9/21

0.87 (0.83–0.91)

47,604 (33,315–59,781)

10.3 (4.9–14.2)

2/3/21

0.84 (0.78–0.90)

Florida

80,372 (54,255–109,711)

38.9 (20.5–65.5)

1/19/21

0.75 (0.63–0.83)

30,321 (26,885–34,509)

8.5 (4.2–13.6)

11/22/20

1 (0.84–1.13)

29,813 (23,434–32,599)

6.7 (0.9–11.2)

1/8/21

0.77 (0.61–1.03)

New York

74,392 (42,508–124,731)

35.1 (8.4–80.2)

2/13/21

0.82 (0.57–1)

48,225 (42,312–58,216)

9.4 (4.1–17.4)

1/18/21

0.81 (0.67–0.95)

39,185 (34,507–48,002)

4.8 (1.1–12.1)

2/28/21

0.93 (0.63–1.20)

Pennsylvania

70,325 (38,291–101,138)

72.4 (25.4–141)

1/18/21

0.68 (0.51–0.83)

24,401 (19,274–35,847)

11.9 (6.6–18.5)

12/11/20

0.91 (0.85–1.03)

18,636 (15,932–21,673)

8.9 (4–15.3)

1/12/21

0.85 (0.71–1.01)

Texas

68,869 (48,205–95,486)

26.3 (15.2–44.6)

2/6/21

0.76 (0.65–0.87)

38,266 (35,595–41,524)

8.9 (3.5–14.1)

1/1/21

0.85 (0.73–0.99)

31,945 (23,134–38,995)

6.6 (2.2–12)

2/14/21

0.78 (0.6–1.1)

Illinois

45,452 (27,394–66,503)

41.3 (17.9–73.4)

1/27/21

0.74 (0.59–0.84)

20,231 (18,473–23,034)

10.7 (6.7–15.9)

12/18/20

0.91 (0.83–1)

14,427 (11,603–17,696)

5.9 (2.5–10.8)

2/27/21

0.87 (0.61–1.09)

New Jersey

41,116 (26,328–53,040)

42.4 (10.3–86.9)

1/18/21

0.67 (0.48–0.87)

25,375 (21,966–31,245)

12.5 (4.0–21.9)

12/27/20

0.85 (0.76–0.93)

22,074 (17,978–24,938)

8.6 (1.6–17.2)

1/21/21

0.8 (0.64–1.06)

Massachusetts

37,421 (21,047–60,070)

82.2 (34.3–151.1)

2/13/21

0.76 (0.56–0.92)

15,265 (14,410–16,616)

11.1 (5.6–18.7)

12/28/20

0.95 (0.83–1.09)

12,853 (10,640–14,578)

8.1 (2.3–15.3)

2/15/21

0.77 (0.61–1.19)

Michigan

35,052 (17,757–56,639)

42.1 (14.5–82.2)

2/2/21

0.77 (0.59–0.91)

14,723 (13,425–17,959)

9 (4.0–16.1)

12/22/20

0.91 (0.77–1.07)

10,857 (8,509–14,137)

5.2 (1.4–11.4)

2/28/21

0.89 (0.59–1.15)

North Carolina

33,376 (20,637–48,331)

41.4 (21.9–70.3)

1/31/21

0.73 (0.59–0.84)

15,841 (12,988–20,712)

11.4 (7.0–16)

12/28/20

0.87 (0.83–0.95)

11,311 (7,628–14,094)

8.8 (4.1–13.7)

2/1/21

0.81 (0.72–1.02)

Ohio

31,340 (15,582–59,015)

41.3 (16.4–78)

2/18/21

0.84 (0.67–0.97)

14,726 (12,604–17,230)

10.6 (6.0–15.7)

1/5/21

0.86 (0.78–0.95)

8,760 (6,455–11,897)

5.4 (1.7–10.5)

2/28/21

0.93 (0.66–1.1)

Georgia

28,981 (20,312–39,881)

23.7 (13–40.3)

1/30/21

0.77 (0.66–0.87)

16,137 (12,811–19,435)

7.1 (1.7–12.3)

12/18/20

0.9 (0.77–1.04)

13,406 (10062–16,710)

5.5 (2.8–9.6)

10/17/20

0.85 (0.63–1.05)

Missouri

28,823 (17,420–38,804)

55.4 (24.5–95.2)

1/9/21

0.68 (0.53–0.79)

8,916 (6,562–13,898)

9.1 (3.1–16.2)

11/7/20

0.92 (0.79–1.12)

6,468 (4,236–7,732)

6 (2–13.3)

10/19/20

0.84 (0.63–1.11)

Indiana

20,541 (12,126–31,620)

38.9 (17.4–69.1)

2/1/21

0.75 (0.60–0.86)

8,999 (8,203–10,209)

10.7 (6.2–16.2)

12/24/20

0.88 (0.80–0.97)

6,037 (4,606–7,925)

5.4 (1.9–10.4)

2/28/21

0.89 (0.6–1.09)

Connecticut

20,236 (7,729–36,134)

77.8 (14.5–173.2)

2/6/21

0.76 (0.49–1)

8,440 (6,677–12,584)

14.1 (5.3–24.2)

1/8/21

0.88 (0.78–0.93)

6,085 (4,796–7,707)

7.2 (1.3–16.4)

2/15/21

0.86 (0.66–1.2)

Arizona

20,061 (16,934–23,195)

22.3 (12.1–36.8)

1/4/21

0.69 (0.57–0.78)

12,641 (10,609–15,248)

8.1 (3.8–13.4)

11/27/20

0.93 (0.77–1.12)

10,512 (8,022–12,062)

6.4 (0.3–12.6)

2/1/21

0.79 (0.61–1.15)

Colorado

19,048 (8,823–28,900)

50.8 (16.2–104.1)

1/27/21

0.68 (0.47–0.86)

7679 (5827–11,652)

12.8 (5.9–20.9)

1/4/21

0.85 (0.79–0.95)

5,170 (3,001–6,984)

8.2 (2.4–15.2)

2/6/21

0.77 (0.63–1.08)

Maryland

18,909 (10,802–29,780)

39.8 (16–73.1)

2/3/21

0.74 (0.56–0.86)

9,374 (8,224–11,424)

11.7 (7.4–17.4)

1/3/21

0.87 (0.79–0.95)

7,175 (5,684–8,566)

7.6 (4–13.1)

2/13/21

0.76 (0.62–1.03)

Minnesota

17,074 (8,030–31,654)

45.3 (17–89.5)

2/9/21

0.78 (0.59–0.91)

6,140 (5,551–6,945)

9.9 (5.3–17.1)

12/29/20

0.85 (0.72–0.99)

4,384 (3,031–5,868)

5.5 (1.9–11.3)

2/14/21

0.82 (0.55–1.05)

Virginia

15,369 (4,481–39,116)

39.2 (4.7–96.7)

2/28/21

0.72 (0.55–0.85)

9,588 (3,883–21,963)

16.3 (1.60–54.4)

1/25/21

0.89 (0.80–1.04)

10,472 (7,005–14,528)

7 (1.1–12.6)

1/14/21

0.86 (0.69–1.09)

Alabama

14,326 (8,692–20,493)

30.1 (13.3–55.5)

1/19/21

0.73 (0.59–0.83)

7,967 (6,485–10,627)

9.9 (4.1–15.1)

12/30/20

0.85 (0.79–0.98)

5,327 (3,501–7,137)

5.3 (0.9–9.7)

2/12/21

0.86 (0.68–1.02)

South Carolina

13,695 (9,516–18,801)

25.3 (14.5–42.5)

2/4/21

0.79 (0.68–0.89)

7,718 (6,769–8,644)

7.9 (2.8–12.7)

12/17/20

0.91 (0.79–1.05)

5,812 (4,408–7,709)

4.8 (0.9–9)

2/28/21

0.91 (0.64–1.06)

Tennessee

13,202 (5,011–21,540)

22.6 (5.1–42.9)

2/6/21

0.79 (0.64–1)

7,819 (5,011–9,577)

8.5 (2.1–14.3)

1/3/21

0.84 (0.72–0.95)

5,207 (2,969–7,608)

5.1 (0.7–10.1)

2/17/21

0.88 (0.66–1.06)

Louisiana

12,841 (9,085–17,601)

23.8 (12.8–40.3)

2/13/21

0.8 (0.68–0.95)

9,546 (8,523–10,628)

9.8 (5.2–14.4)

1/11/21

0.83 (0.75–0.92)

7,347 (6,144–9,052)

5.1 (1.2–9.3)

2/28/21

0.92 (0.68–1.07)

Nevada

10,950 (6,285–16,934)

46.2 (22.3–83.1)

2/8/21

0.76 (0.60–0.89)

4,812 (4,137–5,995)

10.3 (4.8–16.3)

1/1/21

0.90 (0.82–1.02)

3,389 (2,267–4,468)

7.1 (2.5–12.7)

2/20/21

0.82 (0.65–1.12)

Kansas

10,345 (1,683–19,571)

51.9 (3.9–116.2)

1/28/21

0.76 (0.52–1.05)

3,906 (1,683–6,711)

12.3 (2.2–22)

1/8/21

0.84 (0.69–0.96)

2,147 (892–3,295)

6.4 (0.6–13.2)

1/27/21

0.84 (0.66–1.07)

New Mexico

10,135 (5,818–15,160)

67.6 (31.2–120.1)

1/28/21

0.69 (0.52–0.82)

3,798 (3,035–5,683)

12.6 (7.2–17.8)

12/26/20

0.88 (0.84–0.95)

2,424 (1,796–3,068)

9.2 (4.8–13.7)

2/5/21

0.79 (0.69–0.95)

Wisconsin

10,132 (3,850–22,064)

29.7 (8.8–62.3)

2/22/21

0.87 (0.66–1.04)

5,265 (3,850–6,278)

9 (3.7–15.3)

1/18/21

0.79 (0.66–0.92)

2,409 (1,674–3,896)

3.1 (0.7–8.2)

2/28/21

0.98 (0.66–1.12)

Arkansas

10,061 (4,186–16,701)

34 (11.3–64.9)

2/2/21

0.81 (0.67–0.97)

3,805 (2,983–4,848)

6.8 (2–13.2)

10/25/20

0.93 (0.73–1.14)

2,999 (1,914–4,109)

6.1 (2.1–12.6)

10/17/20

0.88 (0.63–1.05)

Oklahoma

10,040 (5,661–15,338)

29.4 (13.3–53.5)

1/24/21

0.74 (0.59–0.85)

4,101 (3,446–5,304)

8.5 (2.9–14.4)

12/17/20

0.91 (0.78–1.05)

3,234 (1,998–4,188)

5.5 (1.6–10.7)

2/1/21

0.81 (0.58–1.01)

Washington

9,814 (5,067–17,772)

20.5 (7.9–39.3)

2/18/21

0.97 (0.87–1.12)

6,246 (4,705–8,574)

7.9 (4.4–12.3)

1/27/21

0.89 (0.7–1.1)

3,695 (2,716–5,024)

3.6 (1–6.7)

2/25/21

0.95 (0.90–1.03)

Kentucky

9,145 (2,956–17,672)

29.9 (6.6–62.8)

2/11/21

0.81 (0.61–1.03)

4,452 (2,956–5,660)

9.4 (2.6–16.5)

1/7/21

0.82 (0.66–0.95)

2,310 (1,470–3,798)

4 (0.6–9.7)

2/28/21

0.93 (0.62–1.09)

Mississippi

8,579 (6,359–11,950)

17.4 (9.1–29.8)

1/29/21

0.8 (0.71–0.9)

5,589 (4,524–7,006)

8.1 (3.5–17.7)

10/21/20

0.90 (0.76–1.07)

4,675 (3,911–5,813)

7.8 (3.5–16.6)

10/17/20

0.91 (0.67–1.02)

Rhode Island

6,319 (4,470–8,029)

75.2 (36.7–122.2)

1/17/21

0.66 (0.52–0.77)

2,317 (2,043–2,774)

12.2 (7.9–17.6)

11/30/20

0.94 (0.85–1.1)

1,946 (1,793–2,063)

9 (4.2–14.7)

1/10/21

0.84 (0.70–1.01)

Nebraska

5,915 (1,913–11,379)

47.1 (11.1–97.1)

2/5/21

0.77 (0.57–0.96)

2,156 (1,615–2,854)

10.8 (4.2–17.4)

12/31/20

0.84 (0.71–0.95)

1,298 (710–1,862)

5.8 (1.2–11.9)

2/8/21

0.82 (0.62–1.04)

West Virginia

5,071 (1,441–10,594)

41.6 (9.8–86.3)

2/17/21

0.86 (0.66–1.05)

2,153 (1,374–3,073)

9.6 (3.7–14.8)

1/10/21

0.89 (0.76–0.99)

1302 (630–2,030)

6.2 (1.4–11.3)

2/21/21

0.89 (0.71–1.11)

Iowa

4,510 (1,887–11,237)

18.4 (2.7–51)

2/28/21

0.94 (0.79–1.1)

3,232 (1,887–4,193)

6.5 (1.4–13.1)

2/1/21

0.82 (0.66–1.08)

1,910 (1,482–3,042)

2.8 (1.3–5.3)

10/6/20

0.95 (0.89–1.03)

Idaho

4,144 (899–9,028)

37.5 (4.1–84.6)

2/19/21

0.85 (0.63–1.09)

1,823 (899–2,521)

8 (1.6–15.2)

1/17/21

0.86 (0.68–1.08)

1,110 (600–1,951)

4.9 (0.7–11.4)

2/27/21

0.89 (0.64–1.10)

North Dakota

3,254 (1,813–4,744)

42 (14.9–81)

12/27/20

0.74 (0.61–0.84)

994 (623–1,639)

14.4 (5.2–30.4)

10/20/20

0.93 (0.79–1.13)

661 (464–951)

13.2 (4.8–27.1)

10/18/20

0.93 (0.66–1.07)

Delaware

2,559 (1,722–3,370)

27.1 (12.2–45.3)

1/16/21

0.72 (0.58–0.82)

1,476 (1,316–1,754)

10.9 (6.2–15.9)

12/18/20

0.89 (0.82–0.95)

1,222 (963–1,375)

7.1 (3.1–12.7)

1/24/21

0.77 (0.63–1)

Montana

1,671 (387–4,215)

21 (2.5–51.7)

2/27/21

0.92 (0.77–1.08)

922 (387–1,272)

6.2 (0.8–12)

1/25/21

0.88 (0.71–1.09)

450 (249–900)

4.2 (1.7–9.7)

10/6/20

0.96 (0.85–1.05)

Hawaii

1,576 (389–4,692)

22.9 (2.4–75.3)

2/28/21

0.99 (0.84–1.15)

1,035 (389–1,676)

7.7 (1.7–13.1)

2/2/21

0.86 (0.71–1.08)

448 (244–891)

3.1 (0.6–9)

2/28/21

0.98 (0.74–1.14)

South Dakota

1,370 (436–3,479)

25.8 (3.6–66)

2/28/21

0.92 (0.74–1.1)

765 (436–933)

6.5 (1.4–13.6)

1/17/21

0.80 (0.60–1.07)

408 (284–750)

3.2 (2.2–4.4)

10/1/20

0.95 (0.60–1.08)

District of Columbia

1,339 (863–2,450)

29.3 (8.9–67)

2/28/21

0.94 (0.74–1.09)

1,039 (863–1,220)

10 (4.8–16.3)

2/2/21

0.79 (0.68–0.89)

723 (659–862)

3.2 (0.6–9.2)

2/28/21

1.07 (0.72–1.25)

Oregon

1,104 (666–2,065)

4.1 (0.4–14.4)

2/28/21

1.09 (0.96–1.29)

1,096 (666–2,065)

3.9 (0.4–12.4)

2/28/21

1.06 (0.75–1.27)

661 (600–806)

0.7 (0.7–0.7)

9/22/20

1.02 (0.96–1.12)

Utah

959 (506–3,110)

5.3 (0.3–34.5)

2/28/21

1.07 (0.93–1.25)

891 (506–2,180)

3.5 (0.3–12.4)

2/28/21

1 (0.60–1.24)

518 (472–687)

0.4 (0.3–0.6)

9/29/20

1.01 (0.95–1.12)

Alaska

733 (74–2,524)

9.3 (0.2–46.7)

12/27/20

0.81 (0.58–0.97)

406 (74–1174)

4.4 (0.2–16.7)

12/9/20

0.83 (0.62–0.97)

250 (67–707)

2 (0.1–11.7)

12/10/20

0.81 (0.63–0.96)

New Hampshire

539 (451–810)

2.5 (0.2–11.6)

2/28/21

1.07 (0.95–1.27)

539 (451–810)

2.5 (0.2–11.2)

2/28/21

1.05 (0.75–1.26)

447 (440–466)

0.2 (0.2–0.2)

9/22/20

0.98 (0.93–1.07)

Maine

279 (149–769)

3 (0–17.2)

2/28/21

1.07 (0.96–1.25)

274 (149–755)

2.6 (0–12.1)

2/28/21

1.04 (0.73–1.23)

161 (145–202)

0.3 (0.3–0.3)

9/22/20

0.99 (0.91–1.09)

Vermont

119 (66–426)

5.1 (0.2–40.3)

2/28/21

1.14 (0.91–1.45)

113 (66–370)

3.6 (0.2–19.3)

2/28/21

1.06 (0.79–1.37)

69 (63–87)

0.4 (0.1–1.8)

2/28/21

0.99 (0.76–1.32)

Wyoming

115 (53–446)

2.4 (0–18.3)

2/28/21

0.99 (0.84–1.13)

108 (53–387)

1.6 (0–9.2)

2/28/21

0.97 (0.71–1.13)

65 (53–104)

0.7 (0.7–0.7)

9/22/20

0.92 (0.7–1.02)