Extended Data Fig. 8: Nomograms.
Example of nomograms that could be used to assess risk of developing LC28 based on 7 days of symptoms and corresponding table of sensitivity, specificity positive and negative predictive values at the different thresholds, given a prevalence of 13.3%. For a sensitive model, for example to apply further monitoring for the development of Long-COVID, the threshold between white and pink could be used, with a PPV of 34% and NPV of (98%), whereas more specific model, for example to recruit to trials to prevent Long-COVID, might use the dark red threshold, with a PPV of 60%, although some individuals who would go on to have Long-COVID would not be recruited (NPV 82%). Symptoms considered for the count: Fatigue – Headache – Shortness of breath – Fever – Persistent cough – Sore throat – Hoarse voice – Abdominal pain – Diarrhoea – Delirium – Chest pain – Loss of smell – Skipped meals – Unusual muscle pains.
