Extended Data Fig. 8: Sensitivity analysis showing absolute and relative risk primary symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with 3 or more COVID-19 symptoms as a function of immune markers measured at day 28 post-second dose.
From: Correlates of protection against symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
Results are shown for: a, b: Anti-spike IgG measured at 28 days post boost (32 cases, 1155 non-cases included in the analysis). c, d: Anti-RBD IgG measured at 28 days post boost (32 cases, 1155 non-cases included in the analysis). e, f: Pseudovirus neutralisation antibody titres 28 days post boost (28 cases, 828 non-cases included in the analysis). g, h: Live virus neutralisation antibody titres 28 days post boost (21 cases, 412 non-cases included in the analysis). a, c, e, g: Grey horizontal lines show the overall risk of primary symptomatic COVID-19 in the control group (MenACWY) and vaccine groups (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19). Blue dots show the absolute risk predicted from the model across the range of antibody values included in the analysis, adjusting for baseline exposure risk to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Green shaded areas show the confidence interval around the predicted mean probability (green line). b, d, f, h: Blue shaded areas represent the immune marker density distribution. Green lines show the relative risk of infection among vaccine recipients compared to the MenACWY control arm participants. The green lines are the median relative risk obtained from 10,000 bootstrap samples. Green shaded areas are 95% bootstrapped confidence intervals for the relative risk.
