Fig. 2: Protection against new PCR-positive cases since second dose.

Note: Data were restricted to individuals aged 18–64 years and the B.1.617.2-dominant period. All estimates (VE = 100% × (1 odds ratio)) were obtained from a generalized linear model with a logit link comparing to the reference category of ‘Not vaccinated, not previously positive and ≥21 d before vaccination’ and using clustered robust standard errors. The error bars represent 95% CIs. See Extended Data Figs. 4 and 5 for effects on PCR-positive cases with Ct <30 or symptoms. See Table 3 for estimates of decline. See Supplementary Table 6 for estimates of VE within subgroups 14 d after second vaccination (intercept on panels below). lthc, self-reporting a long-term health condition.