Extended Data Fig. 4: Average outcomes and ATCs: inverse probability weighting.
From: No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020
In each panel, the horizontal axis indicates dates in 2020, and the vertical turquoise line corresponds to the survey date. In the outcome panels (a, c, e, g, i, k, m), the vertical axis represents the average number of confirmed cases per 100,000 residents, the black and red lines correspond to the weighted average outcomes of the treated and control municipalities, respectively, and the dotted black line represents the un-weighted average outcomes of treated municipalities. In the ATC panels (b, d, f, h, j, l, n), the vertical axis represents ATCs, the thick black line indicates the point estimates of ATCs, and the shaded grey area presents the 95% confidence intervals. We calculate standard errors, taking into consideration weight. a, outcome, March 4. The dotted black line overlaps the solid black line and is thus invisible. b, ATC, March 4. c, outcome, March 16. d, ATC, March 16. e, outcome, April 6. f, ATC, April 6. g, outcome, April 10. The dotted black line overlaps the solid black line and is thus invisible. h, ATC, April 10. i, outcome, April 16. j, ATC, April 16. k, outcome, April 22. l, ATC, April 22. m, outcome, May 11. n, ATC, May 11.
