Extended Data Fig. 5: Projected impact of adopting individual mitigation strategies on COVID-19 burden in China under pessimistic VE scenario from March 2022 to September 2022.
a, Cumulative number of hospital (non-ICU) admissions. b, Cumulative number of ICU admissions. c, Cumulative number of deaths. The scenarios indicated on y axis are as follows: subunit vaccines refer to using a third dose of subunit vaccines as booster after two doses of inactivated vaccines as priming. Vaccinating elderly refers to vaccinating approximately 52 million people aged ≥60 years who have not been vaccinated yet as of March 17, 2022. 50% uptake and 80% efficacy corresponds to a scenario where 50% of symptomatic cases receive an antiviral therapy with an efficacy of 80% in preventing hospitalization and death. 100% uptake and 89% efficacy corresponds to a scenario where all symptomatic cases receive an antiviral therapy with an efficacy of 89% in preventing hospitalization and death. School closure corresponds to a scenario where, on the top of baseline strategy, all schools remain closed for the duration of the epidemic. Similarly, school and workplace closure corresponds to a scenario, where on the top of baseline strategy, all schools and workplaces remain closed for the duration of the epidemic. Rt: 3.0, 2.5, and 2.0 correspond to scenarios assuming different levels of NPIs leading to reduced values of the reproduction number. Note that no strict NPIs is implemented in the baseline scenario. All data are presented as median with 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of n=200 simulations.
