Extended Data Fig. 3: Projected demand and shortage of hospital beds and ICUs for baseline scenario across four settings from March 2022 to September 2022.

a, Daily demand of hospital (non-ICU) beds per 100,000. b, Daily demand of ICU beds per 100,000. In b, the dashed lines indicate the existing number of ICU beds per 100,000 in four settings, and the inset plot shows days of shortage of ICU beds as a function of the number of insufficient ICU beds compared with the capacity of ICU beds in each setting. The curves in the inset are smoothed by B-spline with 8 d.f. China represents the ‘national average’. All data are presented as median with 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of n=200 simulations.