Fig. 3: Prediction of VE based on GD.

The VE-GD model was trained using all non-variant-specific VEs, and estimations were made on all (n = 23) variant-specific VEs. a, Estimated and observed VE for variants by vaccine product. Source of the VE data is indexed behind vaccine product names, available in Supplementary Table 5. b, Calibration plot for the prediction outcome in validation data. The predicted VEs are close to the observed VEs with a CCC of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.88–0.98).