Extended Data Fig. 6: Distributions of predicted serum ID50 titers (PT50s) against viruses acquired by placebo recipients, within each virus neutralization IC50 sensitivity category.

Distributions of predicted serum ID50 titers (PT50s) against viruses acquired by placebo recipients, within each virus neutralization IC50 sensitivity category. Approach 2 of Huang et al.¹¹ was used to calculate PT50 against a given virus by dividing the population PK model-predicted VRC01 serum concentration by the IC80 of the VRC01 drug product against the virus. The distributions are for PT50s of the 82 non-cases in the case-control cohort calculated at each day over the 80-week follow-up against each of the viruses acquired by placebo recipients. On the y-axis, each filled black dot is a point estimate of prevention efficacy against viruses in the specified sensitivity category and the vertical lines are 95% confidence interval estimates as previously reported⁶. The downward arrowhead indicates a value below the y-axis lower limit. On the x-axis, each filled black dot is the median PT50 against viruses acquired by placebo recipients, within each virus neutralization IC50 sensitivity category; the horizontal rectangles extend through the interquartile range and on each side of the boxplot is a kernel density estimation of the distribution shape of the PT50.