Extended Data Fig. 2: The metabolomic state model outperforms linear baselines on NMR-derived metabolite profiles, and NMR-derived metabolite profiles are more predictive than PANEL metabolites.

a) Displayed are C-indices for the Cox Proportional Hazards models trained on the metabolomic state (MET), the 168 metabolites (CPH) as well as on the first ten components of a PCA-reduction of the 168 metabolites (PCA) for each of the 24 investigated endpoints. The metabolomic state performs comparably or better than both the CPH and PCA models for all endpoints, except prostate cancer. b) Displayed are C-indices for Cox Proportional Hazards models trained on Age+Sex (Age+Sex), the metabolomic states derived from NMR metabolomics (MET(NMR)), the metabolomic states derived from the PANEL metabolites (MET(PANEL)) and combinations of Age+Sex and the metabolomic states respectively. NMR profiles provide predictive information comparable or superior to the PANEL metabolites for all investigated endpoints, also reflected in the predictive performance over the Age+Sex covariates. The MET(PANEL) set included albumin, cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, and creatinine. Statistical measures were derived from n = 117.981 individuals. Individuals with prior events were excluded (Supplementary Table 1). Data are presented as median (center of error bar) and 95% CI (line of error bar) determined by bootstrapping over 1000 iterations. PAD - Peripheral Artery Disease, AAA - Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm, COPD - Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.