Extended Data Fig. 4: Relative changes in mortality per country under scenarios with lower level behaviour adaptation.
From: Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic
Plots comparing estimates based on unchanged behaviour and lower level adapted behaviour. Country level estimates of vaccination coverage at the start of 2022 (a,d,g,j), total number of deaths over 2021 relative to the current scenario with unchanged behaviour but increased vaccine sharing (b,e,h,k), and total number of deaths over 2021 relative to the current scenario with lower level adaptive behaviour and increased vaccine sharing (c,f,i,l). All results represent medians of 100 simulations with model fitting spanning the range of uncertainty in infection and mortality estimates for each country. These are presented as caricatures to compare scenario impact with detailed data and associated prediction intervals provided at an income group level in Tables S5 and S6.
