Fig. 2: ctDNA status in the MRD and surveillance windows is predictive of survival outcomes in post-surgical patients with CRC.
From: ctDNA-based molecular residual disease and survival in resectable colorectal cancer
a,b, Kaplan–Meier estimates for DFS (a) and OS (b) stratified by ctDNA status during the MRD window (negative versus positive). P = 7.55 × 10–162 (a); P = 1.25 × 10–25 (b). P value for the bar plots showing the association between ctDNA status and DFS or OS events was calculated based on the two-sided chi-square test: P = 4.11 × 10−146 (a); P = 6.97 × 10−29 (b). c,d, Forest plot depicting the multivariate analysis (including ctDNA status during MRD window and other clinicopathological factors) for DFS (c) and OS (d) in patients with CRC. P = 1.10 × 10–96 (c, ctDNA); P = 1.43 × 10−4 (c, MSI); P = 2.55 × 10−15 (d, ctDNA); P = 3.56 × 10−5 (d, BRAF V600E). e,f, Kaplan–Meier estimates for DFS (e) and OS (f) stratified by ctDNA status during the surveillance window (negative versus positive). P = 1.21 × 10−163 (e); P = 1.20 × 10−20 (f). Two-sided chi-square test for bar plots: P = 1.19 × 10−217 (e); P = 1.10 × 10−29 (f). g, Forest plot depicting the multivariate analysis (including ctDNA status during the surveillance window and other clinicopathological factors) for DFS in patients with CRC. P = 6.79 × 10−118 (g, ctDNA); P = 1.88 × 10−4 (g, sex). HRs and 95% CIs were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model; P values were calculated using the two-sided log-rank test (a,b,e,f). Various prognostic factors and their association with DFS, as indicated by HR, were analyzed across the cohort using the two-sided Wald chi-squared test (c,d,g). The unadjusted HRs (squares) and 95% CIs (horizontal lines) are shown for each prognostic factor; the vertical dotted line represents the null hypothesis (c,d,g). The DFS and OS analyses in the MRD window were landmarked from the date of the MRD timepoint, and the analyses in the surveillance window were landmarked at 10 weeks after surgery. Median DFS/OS and percentage DFS and OS at 24 months, 30 months and 36 months were estimated from the landmark timepoint. AIC, Akaike information criterion; mDFS, median DFS; mOS, median OS; NR, not reached.
