Fig. 3: ctDNA positivity during the MRD and surveillance windows was significantly associated with inferior OS of patients who had radiological recurrence.
From: ctDNA-based molecular residual disease and survival in resectable colorectal cancer
a, CONSORT diagram depicting patients included in the OS cohorts of patients with radiological recurrence. b, Bar plot showing the association of percentage of patients with ctDNA positivity and negativity during the MRD window and any time after surgery with the site of recurrence. c, ctDNA status in the MRD window is predictive of OS across all recurrence sites in post-surgical patients with CRC. Note: Given that 226 of the 500 patients with radiological recurrence had metastatic involvement at more than one site, these individual patients were counted in more than one category. d,e, Kaplan–Meier estimates for OS stratified by ctDNA status during the MRD window (d) or surveillance window (e) of patients with CRC who had radiological recurrence during follow-up. P = 9.89 × 10−5 (d). HRs and 95% CIs were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model. P values were calculated using the two-sided log-rank test. The OS analysis in the MRD window was landmarked from the date of the MRD timepoint, and the analysis in the surveillance window was landmarked at 10 weeks after surgery. Median OS and percentage OS at 24 months were estimated from the landmark timepoint. ctDNA−, ctDNA negative; ctDNA+, ctDNA positive; LN, lymph node.
