Fig. 4: MRD positivity was associated with worse DFS compared to MRD negativity consistently across all actionable biomarkers.
From: ctDNA-based molecular residual disease and survival in resectable colorectal cancer
a, Prevalence of genomic biomarkers in our cohort. b,c, Kaplan–Meier estimates for DFS stratified by the presence of genomic biomarkers. P = 2.17 × 10−7 (c, TMB high); P = 3.62 × 10−7 (c, MSI high). Two-sided chi-square test for bar plot: P = 3.04 × 10−17 (b). d, ctDNA detection percentage rates in the MRD window by genomic biomarkers. Error bars represent 95% CI. e,f, Kaplan–Meier estimates for DFS stratified by the ctDNA status in the MRD window and genomic biomarkers. The unadjusted HRs (circles) and 95% CIs (horizontal lines) are shown for each biomarker; the vertical dashed line represents the null hypothesis (f). P = 8.75 × 10−12 (e, BRAF V600E); P = 7.55 × 10−162 (f, all); P = 8.75 × 10−12 (f, BRAF V600E); P = 3.35 × 10−5 (f, ERBB2); P = 1.01 × 10−6 (f, KRAS G12C); P = 3.37 × 10−8 (f, MSI high); P = 1.33 × 10−7 (f, TMB high); P = 4.75 × 10−74 (f, RAS/BRAF WT). Two-sided chi-square test for bar plot: P = 1.01 × 10−15 (e). HRs and 95% CIs were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model; P values were calculated using the two-sided log-rank test (c,e,f). Analyses in d–f were landmarked from the date of the MRD timepoint. Median DFS and percentage DFS at 24 months were estimated from the landmark timepoint. Statistical comparisons of baseline characteristics by the presence of each actionable biomarker were performed using Fisher’s exact test for categorical variables and the Mann–Whitney test for continuous variables. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to test the association of post-surgical MRD detection with actionable biomarkers as well as baseline characteristics.
