Fig. 2: Changes in mean annual suspected cholera incidence rate (cases per population per year) in Africa from 2011 to 2020.
From: Geographical shifting of cholera burden in Africa and its implications for disease control
a, The dot plots (left column) display changes in the posterior mean of the mean annual incidence rate from 2011–2015 (open circle) to 2016–2020 (filled circle) at the continent level (top panel), region level (second panel) and country level listed by 3-letter International Organization for Standardization (ISO3) code (four bottom panels). Arrows indicate the direction of change from 2011–2015 to 2016–2020, with red indicating increases and blue indicating decreases. Countries are ordered by decreasing 2016–2020 mean annual incidence rate within region-level panels. All changes shown in the figure were statistically significant except those in Botswana, Eritrea, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho and South Africa. The IRR plots (right column) display the mean (point) and 95% CrI (bars) across 4,0002 pairwise comparisons of 4,000 samples from the posterior distributions of the mean annual incidence rates in 2016–2020 relative to those in 2011–2015. b, Posterior mean ratio of the mean annual incidence rates in 2016–2020 relative to 2011–2015 by ADM2 units. Units filled with red had higher mean rates and areas filled with blue had lower mean rates in the 2016–2020 period. ADM2 units outlined in dark gray had 95% CrIs completely above or below 1, respectively. ADM2 units outlined in light gray represent statistically non-significant differences. The following countries were not eligible to have statistically significant ADM2 changes due to limited subnational data in at least one of the two periods: Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Ghana, Liberia, Rwanda, Senegal, Eswatini and South Africa. Areas in light blue represent large water bodies. All areas displayed were modeled.
