Fig. 6: Potential reach of interventions as defined by two cholera burden metrics when prioritizing by past cholera incidence categories.
From: Geographical shifting of cholera burden in Africa and its implications for disease control
Proportion of 2016–2020 cases (left panel, y axis) or population living in ADM2 units with cholera occurrence in 2022–2023 (right panel, y axis) reached when prioritizing people living in ADM2 units (x axis) by past incidence categories (‘prospective’ targeting, full bars) or burden in the concurrent period (‘oracle’ targeting, hashed bars). There is only one past incidence category (2011–2015) for the 2016–2020 period. There were three past incidence categories (2011–2015, 2016–2020 and 2011–2020) for the 2022–2023 period. The horizontal dashed line marks 100% of cases or population reached. The diagonal dotted line indicates unit yield in population targeted (for example, targeting 10% of the population in Africa reaches 10% of cases in 2016–2020 or cholera-affected population in 2022–2023). Bar heights represent the mean and error bars represent the 95% CrI of the mean estimate across 4,000 samples from the posterior distribution. M, million.
