Fig. 4: Prospective risk scores for pfhrp2 deletions in Africa. | Nature Medicine

Fig. 4: Prospective risk scores for pfhrp2 deletions in Africa.

From: Global risk of selection and spread of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 gene deletions

Fig. 4

a, The prospective risk score modeling continued spread of deletions based on current best estimates of the prevalence of pfhrp2 deletions as collated in the WHO Malaria Threat Maps database (2023)3. b,c, In this model, assumptions that deletions are imported into a region from a neighboring region once they have reached a prevalence of 25% (b, 2024) and selection of deletions in a region determined by that region’s transmission intensity and treatment-related parameters (c, 2025). d–f, The predicted spread of false-negative RDTs due to pfhrp2/3 deletions in Africa over the next 20 years: 2023 (d); 2033 (e); 2043 (f). The color bar shows the percentage of clinically relevant infections misdiagnosed due to pfhrp2/3 gene deletions (Supplementary Video 1).

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