Table 5 Estimated bilateral migration flows from demographic accounting approaches. On the left side, the estimated migration flows are based on the stayer maximisation assumption used in Abel (2013) and Abel (2018). On the right side, the estimated migration flows are based on the Pseudo-Bayesian estimation method of Azose and Raftery (2018).

From: Bilateral international migration flow estimates for 200 countries

Minimisation

Pseudo-Bayes

Origin (t)

Destination (t + 1)

Origin (t)

Destination (t + 1)

A

B

C

D

Sum

A

B

C

D

Sum

A

 

    5

    7.9

22.1

    35

A

 

      12

11.3

27.9

    51.2

B

    7.1

 

12.1

40.7

    60

B

13.5

 

12.5

45.9

    71.9

C

    17.9

    5

 

    7.1

    30

C

21.5

    5.3

 

11.5

    38.4

D

        0

35

      0

 

    35

D

    6.2

39.5

    4.6

 

    50.3

Sum

     25

45

      20

      70

160

Sum

41.2

56.9

28.4

85.3

211.7