Fig. 1

Overview of the analysis framework. The agricultural suitability refers to land that is suitable for crop cultivation under the environmental conditions of each time period and climate scenario. The potentially cultivable land excludes impervious areas that are agriculturally suitable, such as settlements or roads. The potentially available cropland additionally accounts for a subset of institutional restrictions, regulations and (potential) nature protection policies on the agricultural use of land. Thereby, we assume strictly protected areas, forests and wetlands to be not available for cropland use, and thus exclude those areas in the potentially available cropland.