Table 1 Models of the data in Fig. 2 and values of AIC.

From: Zero-tolerance biosecurity protects high-conservation-value island nature reserve

Theoretical model

AIC border

AIC post-border

Including zero detections

 Poisson

135,374

9,820

 Negative Binomial

27,276

1,991

 Zero-inflated Poisson

56,756

5,219

 Zero-inflated Negative Binomial

24,460

2,318

Excluding zero detections

 Standard Poisson

38,215

3,406

 Standard Negative Binomial

7,824

733

 Zero-truncated Poisson

38,208

3,406

 Zero-truncated Negative Binomial

6,605

1,324

 Log-Normal

5,977

510

Excluding zero detections and extreme values

 Mixture Poisson

12,190

957

 Mixture Negative Binomial

6,759

590

 Mixture Log-Normal

5,529

424