Figure 1

Model flow diagram in the absence of vaccination. S, susceptible, I V , single carriers of any vaccine serotype, I N , single carriers of any non-vaccine serotyoe, I VV double carriers of any two vaccine serotypes, I NN , double carriers of any two non-vaccine serotypes, I VN , double carriers of a vaccine and non-vaccine serotype. With vaccination, the structure of the model is doubled to account for vaccination status of each epidemiological class. The parameters are defined in the text. See Methods 1–3 for details, and Supplementary Material S1 for full ODE equation formulation.