Figure 2
Transmission intensity vs. overall pathogen prevalence in a SIS framework. The mean R 0’s estimated from our datasets are matched with the expected overall prevalence of pneumococcal carriage in the pre-vaccine era. The bars reflect the 95% confidence interval for binomial proportions over 300 simulations with same R 0, taking into account the mean sample size in each setting (Table 1). The line depicts the theoretical nonlinear relationship expected by the model (Eq. (1)). The shaded regions represent the 95% quantile of simulations under different sample sizes: n = 100 (light blue), n = 250 (darker blue) and n = 500 (darkest shade).
