Figure 4
Observed and fitted prevalence of asymptomatic carriage of pneumococcus in day care centres by country. The model-predicted 95% credible envelopes for temporal trajectories of VT prevalence (left panels) and overall prevalence (right panels) after vaccination are superimposed on observed data in different day care settings at specific time-points. (a,b) Portugal. (c,d) Norway. (e,f) France. (g,h) Greece. (i,j) Hungary. (k,l) Hong Kong. The credible envelopes were computed using 500 simulations with different parameter combinations sampled from the joint posterior, and here account only for the uncertainty around parameter values and initial conditions. For the credible envelopes accounting for sampling uncertainty throughout time (with mean sample size as in Table 1) see Fig. S6.
