Figure 4

Relationship between slide-prevalence of infection in 0–15 year olds (PfPR0–15) and the mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) in infected individuals in 63 sites. Data (points) and model fit (black line). Data are: (blue) asymptomatic individuals in the test datset in Tanzania in 2004 and (red) 2007;⁵⁸ (orange) data from a previous review in multiple sites⁴³ containing both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals; and (black) from symptomatic patients in Uganda⁶⁴. 48 of the measures had simultaneous measures of slide-prevalence, while the other 15 were paired with an alternative measure of transmission intensity, the entomological inoculation rate (EIR, number of infectious bites per person per year). We converted the EIR values to slide-prevalence values in 0–15 year olds, using a previously published relationship⁶⁰. Model fit (black line) is from linear regression of log MOI against the log odds of PfPR0–15. The best fitting relationship is log MOI = 1.082 + 0.185*logit(PfPR0–15). This is further confirmed with a similar relationship fitted in a separate review and mathematical modelling paper published after our analysis was complete⁶⁵.