Table 5 Performance of APACHE IV, SAPS 3, APACHE II, MELD-Na, MELD, and CTP models on prediction of 1 year mortality.

	APACHE IV -LT specific predicted mortality	SAPS 3	APACHE II	MELD-Na	MELD	CTP
AUC (95% CI)	0.83 (0.76–0.90)	0.71 (0.59–0.82)	0.73 (0.63–0.83)	0.67 (0.55–0.79)^*	0.69 (0.57–0.80)	0.64 (0.53–0.75) ^†
Cutoff point	39	55	20	23	19	11
H-L C-test χ²	7.91	2.81	6.75	8.46	6.73	4.37
p-value	0.44	0.95	0.56	0.39	0.57	0.50
H-L H-test χ²	5.92	6.53	8.62	6.37	8.92	5.19
p-value	0.66	0.59	0.38	0.61	0.35	0.74
SMR (95% CI)	NA	0.19 (0.13–0.29)	0.15 (0.09–0.22)	NA	NA	NA
Sensitivity	0.72	0.68	0.60	0.64	0.64	0.48
Specificity	0.73	0.70	0.73	0.67	0.65	0.75
PPV	0.11	0.09	0.09	0.08	0.08	0.08
NPV	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97

Statistical comparison of APACHE IV-LT specific predicted mortality with *MELD-Na scores (p = 0.035) and ^†CTP scores (p = 0.03) after Holm adjustment for multiple comparisons.
APACHE, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation; LT, liver transplantation; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease; MELD-Na, model for end-stage liver disease-Na; SAPS, Simplified Acute Physiology Score; CTP, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score; AUC, area under the receiver operating curve; CI, confidence interval; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; H-L C-test. Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistics; H-L H-test, Hosmer-Lemeshow H-statistics; SMR, Standardized mortality ratio; NA, not applicable.

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